Labor Reallocation Effects of Furlough Schemes: Evidence from Two Recessions in Spain
This paper analyzes the role of furlough schemes when aggregate risk has a sector-specific component. In particular, our focus lies on the different responses of the Spanish labor market to the Great Recession and the recent pandemic crisis since both downturns have been driven by such a type of shocks. However, the pandemic episode involves much less job destruction than the previous recession, following firms’ widespread use of furlough schemes (ERTEs, by their Spanish acronym) which were hardly used before. A favorable effect of these policies is that they stabilize unemployment rates by allowing workers to remain matched with their employers in the most affected sectors. However, under their current design, it is argued that ERTEs crowd out labor hoarding exerted by employers in the absence of those schemes, as well as increase the volatility of working rates and output. In particular, we show, both theoretically and empirically, that ERTEs slow down worker reallocation away from declining sectors to other sectors not affected by those shocks.
European Economic Review, 2025
Means-Tested Programs and Interstate Migration in the United States
This paper quantifies the impact of means-tested programs - in particular, Medicaid and Public Housing - on the interstate mobility of their beneficiaries. Simulations from a structural model with heterogeneous workers and locations show that beneficiaries' mobility falls by 17.2 percent, with the greatest reduction occurring among the poorest beneficiaries. Around half of this effect stems from the lack of federal coordination in the programs' administrations, i.e., the possibility that a moving beneficiary loses transfers despite being eligible for them. Reducing this probability to zero raises overall welfare, with 5 percent of low-income households obtaining a welfare gain of 1.1 percent.
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2025